Winter Storm Fern tightened U.S. energy markets in late January, pushing Henry Hub natural gas prices up about 110% as cold-weather demand rose and upstream output eased. An analysis from the Texas Oil & Gas Association said Texas production declined roughly 7% to 10% while electricity demand increased about 40%. Over Jan. 22–26, ERCOT relied heavily on dispatchable generation—supplying up to 92% of output—with natural gas providing roughly 70% of total generation.
Rystad Energy estimated an initial natural gas decline of about 2 Bcf across several basins, followed by a sharper drop near 12 Bcf/d driven largely by the Permian and the broader Gulf Coast region. The firm also projected a January monthly-average oil impact of about 390,000 barrels per day from an onshore Lower 48 baseline of 11.378 million bpd, with output expected to recover as temperatures normalize. Rystad noted front-month Henry Hub moved from around $3.10 to $6.75 per MMBtu over the week beginning Jan. 19, reflecting both higher demand and reduced supply. TXOGA President Todd Staples said Texas gas production stayed near 28 Bcf/d and storage helped balance conditions, with withdrawals peaking near 12.8 Bcf/d. For mineral and royalty owners, price moves like these can influence payments (see how natural gas prices influence royalty payments) and may coincide with temporary operational pauses (see shut-in wells and royalties explained).
Source: Midland Reporter-Telegram
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