Tag Archive for: oilproduction

Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to make its final production hike in August at the now standard level of 411,000 barrels daily.

Goldman expects OPEC+ output hikes to end in August

Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to make its final production hike in August at the now standard level of 411,000 barrels daily.

In a recent analysis, the bank highlighted the current dynamics of the oil market, indicating that the fundamentals surrounding oil supply and demand remain relatively robust. Despite ongoing concerns about a potential slowdown in global economic activity, recent data has shown stronger-than-expected performance in various sectors. This resilience in hard global activity metrics, coupled with the seasonal uptick in oil demand typically associated with the summer months, suggests that any anticipated decline in oil consumption is unlikely to be severe enough to warrant a significant reduction in production levels. As such, market participants are closely monitoring these trends, particularly in light of the upcoming decision on production levels scheduled for July 6th.

Furthermore, the interplay between these factors may lead to a reconsideration of strategies among oil-producing nations as they evaluate their output in response to both market signals and geopolitical considerations. The bank’s insights imply that while cautious optimism prevails, the potential for a sustained increase in production remains on the table. Producers may view the current environment as an opportunity to capitalize on existing demand, thus influencing pricing and supply dynamics in the coming months. This perspective underscores the importance of closely watching economic indicators and seasonal patterns as they impact the broader oil market landscape.

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Source: Oil Price

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Permian oil output tops 6M bpd and may peak at 7.7M by 2035, but plateau—not decline—is expected, per Wood Mac, despite rising costs and challenges.

The Permian is not done yet

Back in 2017, oil production in the Permian stood at 2.2 million barrels daily. Today, the Permian is producing over 6 million barrels daily, accounting for nearly half of the U.S. total. Predictions of a looming peak have lately multiplied.  According to Wood Mackenzie, the Permian is not done yet—not if prices improve.

To be sure, the boom days seem to be over. Production growth in the most prolific shale play in the United States. It has been slowing already as production costs climb higher while oil prices slide lower. Most forecasts for the region agree that growth in production. It is about to slow down further, and Wood Mac is no exception. The consultancy expects output there to add 200,000 barrels daily this year, for a total of 6.6 million barrels daily.

Going forward, growth is about to continue slowing, and the analysts predicted. Until production peaks at 7.7 million barrels daily in 2035. Yet, while many assume that a peak is inevitably followed by a decline, this will not be the case in the Permian. Output of crude oil in the play will plateau at 7.7 million bpd, and this will more than offset production declines in other producing regions in the country—meaning oil demand will be healthy enough to support such a trend.

Companies with big footprints in the Permian, therefore, can enjoy said footprint even with slower growth. Yet companies tend to seek new growth opportunities all the time to sustain their business, and the prospect of peak growth in the Permian is a real one. The gas-to-oil ratio of output there has been on the rise, as has the water-to-oil ratio in the play. Both trends suggest that some formations in the basin are reaching geological constraints, and more drilling isn’t necessarily proportionate to the oil volumes produced.

Indeed, Big Oil executives have predicted that peak oil supply will arrive in the U.S. before 2035. This does not, of course, mean they are right and Wood Mac analysts are wrong. It simply means that nothing is certain until it happens. And it seems that the slowdown in the Permian is already happening. It also seems that the challenges are multiplying: the latest is concern that toxic wastewater in underground reservoirs could leak and that it could affect seismic activity in the area. In response to these risks, the Railroad Commission of Texas has started imposing restrictions on the amount of wastewater disposed of underground until pressure levels subside.

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Source: Oil & Gas 360

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Once dismissed, "peak oil" is resurging as U.S. production slows, sparking fresh concerns about future supply and its global economic impact.

Return of Peak Oil

The term “return of peak oil” has sparked debate for decades, fueling speculation and more than a few forecasts of doomsday scenarios. But for all the noise, it remains a largely misunderstood concept. That’s unfortunate, because peak oil—both in theory and in practice—still carries serious implications for the global economy and energy markets.

The phrase was very popular 20 years ago, but then faded when the shale revolution gathered steam. But all booms eventually end, and a growing number of voices are suggesting that peak production in the U.S. may soon be upon us.

What is Peak Oil?

But let’s begin with the basics. “Peak oil” doesn’t mean we are running out of oil. It means that we have hit a maximum level of oil production, and after that point, production begins to decline.

The concept was popularized in the 1950s by geophysicist Shell M. King Hubbert, who predicted that U.S. oil production would peak around 1970. That prediction was initially correct, but it didn’t account for the eventual surge in unconventional oil—especially from shale—which temporarily reversed that decline decades later.

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Source: Oil & Gas 360

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Texas oil and gas production hit new records in 2024, surpassing records that were set in 2023, according to the Texas Railroad Commission.

Texas Oil and Gas Industry Continued Hot Streak in 2024

The Texas oil and gas industry continued a hot streak in 2024, with production volumes surpassing records set in 2025. All of this is according to a statement recently posted on its website by the Texas Railroad Commission (RRC).

In the statement, the RRC noted that it tallies production reports submitted by operators. It is an outline that the latest reports show that oil production came in at 2,003,844,281 barrels. Moreover, natural gas production hit 12.62 trillion cubic feet, last year. The RRC highlighted in the statement that this was the first time oil “surpassed the two billion threshold”.

The RRC statement pointed out that Texas’ top five crude oil and condensate production years came in 2024, This is at 2.00 billion barrels in 2023 then at 1.99 billion barrels in 2022. Lastly at 1.87 billion barrels in 2019. For additional data, at 1.86 billion barrels and 2020, and at 1.77 billion barrels.

The statement highlighted Texas’ top five gas production years—2024 (12.62 trillion cubic feet), 2023 (12.30 trillion cubic feet), 2022 (11.43 trillion cubic feet), 2021 (10.51 trillion cubic feet), and 2020 (10.24 trillion cubic feet).

“These latest records further demonstrate Texas’s position as a global leader in oil and gas production,” RRC Chairman Christi Craddick said in the statem

ent.

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Source: Rigzone

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Oil prices have fallen for the second consecutive week, but a major bullish catalyst may be looming in early February.

Why oil prices could spike in February

Oil prices have fallen for the second consecutive week, but a major bullish catalyst may be looming in early February. So, Why oil prices could spike in February?

Oil prices will finish this week some $2 per barrel lower than a week ago as the January ICE Brent futures contract expires just below $77 per barrel. However, if Donald Trump’s February 1 deadline for Canada and Mexico leads to the US slapping punitive 25% sanctions, the second straight weekly decline could be cut short very quickly. If the threat does become a reality, the oil bulls will not stop until Brent is back above $80 per barrel.

Former IEA Employees Turn Against It. Just as the International Energy Agency came under severe criticism from Donald Trump due to its marked focus on climate change, a new report penned by the IEA’s former head of analysis identified 23 false assumptions in the organization’s peak-demand scenarios.

Investments into Clean Energy Hit New Record. Global investors invested $2.1 trillion into low-carbon energy for the first time on record in 2024. This is according to BloombergNEF. They achieved only 11% year-over-year growth. This is is slower than the 25% growth seen previously and only 37% of what is required to meet net zero emissions by 2050.

Cofee Is The New Cocoa of 2025.

Prices of arabica coffee continued to hit record highs this week as front-month ICE futures hit $3.74 per pound on Thursday. This is on the back of drought-hit tight supplies from Brazil and low coffee bean inventories from top roasters such as Nestle (SWX:NESN) or JDE Peet’s.

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Source: Oil Price

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Trump's promised deregulation in the oil and gas industry with faster permitting could hit a wall of continuously growing global supply.

Trump’s oil plans meet market glut in 2025

President-elect Donald Trump’s oil plans on policies could boost U.S. crude production beyond the currently estimated growth.

However, Trump’s vow to “drill, baby, drill” and the promised deregulation in the oil and gas industry with faster permitting could hit a wall of continuously growing global supply. This higher production from non-OPEC+ producers is set to tilt the market into a large surplus in 2025, even if OPEC+ keeps its current commitment to begin bringing back supply from April, analysts and forecasters say.

The current state of the oil market indicates a significant shift in the supply-demand equation, with projections suggesting that supply could surpass demand by approximately 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in the coming year. This oversupply scenario raises important questions regarding pricing dynamics and market stability, as an excess in supply often leads to downward pressure on oil prices. However, seasoned market observers are acutely aware that the interplay of geopolitics will significantly influence oil prices moving forward. Factors such as international relations, regulatory changes, and geopolitical tensions can create volatility that may counteract the anticipated supply surplus.

Geopolitical Factors

Among the myriad geopolitical factors at play, former President Trump’s have policies toward key oil-producing nations. This is specifically Iran, Venezuela, and Russia—emerge as the most significant wildcard influencing future market conditions. The potential for sanctions, trade agreements, or military actions could have far-reaching implications for global oil supply and pricing structures. Furthermore, the discussion surrounding tariffs on energy products could also reverberate through the American economy, affecting domestic energy prices and, by extension, the broader global economic landscape. As such, stakeholders across the energy sector must remain vigilant and adaptable, closely monitoring these developments to navigate the complexities of an evolving market environment.

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Source: Oil Price

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Exxon outperforms oil majors, rising 15% despite falling crude prices, with higher production growth and lower costs than rivals.

Exxon Mobil Corp. Beats Estimates on Higher Permian Basin Oil Production

Exxon Mobil Corp. has surpassed analysts’ expectations for the third quarter, driven by a notable increase in oil production from the U.S. Permian Basin, which effectively mitigated the impact of declining crude prices and tighter refining margins. The company reported earnings of $1.92 per share, exceeding the median analyst estimate of $1.87 as compiled by Bloomberg. This performance aligns with a broader trend among major oil companies, as both Chevron Corp. and Shell Plc also delivered results that exceeded market predictions, highlighting a resilient sector amid fluctuating commodity prices.

In a year marked by volatility in the global oil market, Exxon has emerged as the leading performer among major oil producers, with its stock rising over 15% despite a general downturn in international crude prices. This remarkable achievement underscores Exxon’s strategic focus on enhancing oil and natural gas production while reducing operational costs.

Exxon The Largest Energy Explorer

As North America’s largest energy explorer, the company has showcased an impressive capacity for not only expanding its production capabilities but also optimizing operational efficiencies that outpace those of its competitors. This strategic advantage is further underscored by a commitment to leveraging cutting-edge technologies and innovative practices that enhance resource extraction and management. By investing in advanced exploration techniques, the company has been able to identify and tap into previously untapped reserves, thereby significantly increasing its output. This proactive approach not only strengthens its market position but also ensures a sustainable and reliable supply of energy, which is crucial in meeting the growing demands of an ever-evolving energy landscape.

Moreover, the company’s ability to navigate the complexities of the current energy environment—characterized by fluctuating prices, regulatory challenges, and an increasing shift toward renewable energy sources—demonstrates its resilience and adaptability. In aligning its growth strategies with environmental sustainability goals, the company is also positioning itself as a forward-thinking leader in the industry.

By prioritizing investments in renewable energy initiatives and carbon reduction technologies, it not only meets regulatory requirements but also addresses the growing consumer demand for cleaner energy alternatives. This dual focus on traditional energy production and sustainable practices not only enhances the company’s reputation but also secures its future as a key player in the transitional energy economy.

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Source: Energy Connects

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OPEC+ made no changes to plans to start gradually reviving oil production towards the end of the year, despite signs of an impending surplus.

OPEC+ remains committed to reviving production despite possible surplus

A statement from 23-nation the group after an online monitoring meeting on Wednesday didn’t announce any alterations. Led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, OPEC+ plans a series of monthly increases beginning with a 180,000 bpd hike in December — two months later than originally scheduled because of fragile market sentiment.

Oil prices have rallied more than 5% in the past two days after Iran, an OPEC member, launched strikes against Israel in an escalation of the Middle East’s year-long conflict. But at around $75 a barrel, prices remain 14% down from July as traders focus on weak demand in China and swelling supplies from the Americas.

While the retreat offers relief to consumers after years of rampant inflation — and for central banks as they pivot to lowering interest rates — it poses a financial threat to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies.

Saudi Arabia slashed growth forecasts this week and projected deeper budget deficits than previously estimated as the cost of efforts to overhaul the kingdom’s economy outpaces revenue. Russia, meanwhile, relies on energy income to finance President Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine.

JMMC meeting

The JMMC meeting on Wednesday mainly focused on the failure of Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia. It is for the implementation of their agreed cutbacks, according to delegates who asked not to be identified.

While the countries “reiterated their strong commitment” to the agreement, they mostly continue to pump above their output quotas. They haven’t yet started extra cutbacks pledged as compensation for cheating. The countries held individual workshops to discuss output levels in September.

OPEC+ plans to restore roughly 2.2 MMbpd in monthly tranches between December and late 2025, and allow the United Arab Emirates to make an extra hike in recognition of its increased production capacity.

The alliance has several more weeks to decide whether to go ahead with the December increase. Ministers are scheduled to gather on Dec. 1 to review policy for next year.

With oil markets poised to deteriorate further, analysts including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. have expressed skepticism. It is that OPEC+ will press on with its scheduled supply increases.

Consumption is due to grow by less than 1 MMbpd in 2025. Supplies are set to swell by 50% more. It wil be leaving a glut even if OPEC+ continues to restrain output. This is according to estimates from the International Energy Agency.

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Source: Oil & Gas 360

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Upstream oil and gas employment in Texas rose by 1,000 jobs month/month in August, marking a third straight month of sequential gains

Texas upstream employment swells amid soaring natural gas, oil production

Upstream oil and gas employment in Texas rose by 1,000 jobs month/month in August. It marks the third straight month of sequential gains. The Texas Oil & Gas Association (TXOGA) said and cited data from the Texas Workforce Commission.

“Month after month, Texas continues to demonstrate its strength as a production powerhouse. It is rising to meet the growing energy needs of our state, nation, and allies around the world”. This is what TXOGA President Todd Staples. says

“Upstream job growth reflects the sustained demand for these indispensable resources. It underscores the industry’s unwavering commitment to energy leadership. Morover, it is keeping Texas at the forefront of the global energy landscape.”

The group highlighted that since the pandemic-induced low point of September 2020, the industry has added 37,400 upstream jobs in the state, averaging growth of 791 jobs/month.

“Since the Covid low point, months with upstream oil and gas employment increases have outnumbered those with [decreases] by 36 to 11,” TXOGA researchers said. “These jobs pay among the highest wages in Texas, with employers in oil and natural gas paying an average salary of approximately $124,000 in 2023.”

The Texas Independent Producers and Royalty Owners Association (TIPRO) touted the job growth as well, noting that it was driven by the oilfield services segment.

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Source: NGI

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Record Oil Production

Record Oil Production in Permian and Bakken Basins

Despite the Biden-Harris administration’s stated objectives to phase out oil and gas production. This is in favor of more sustainable energy sources, recent developments in the Permian and Bakken basins illustrate a contrasting reality. Record oil production is happenning now. These regions, which are pivotal to the U.S. energy landscape, are currently experiencing oil and gas production rates that have not been witnessed in over 13 years. This resurgence in output underscores the complexities of transitioning to greener energy, as it appears that the demand for fossil fuels remains robust. Notably, the Macquarie Group has revised its forecasts, suggesting that U.S. crude production may outpace many analysts’ expectations, indicating a more resilient oil market than previously anticipated.

In the Midland Basin, which spans parts of Texas and New Mexico, operators—including several firms based in Oklahoma—have significantly intensified drilling activities. According to a report by Bloomberg, these companies drilled an impressive average of 47 miles of horizontal lateral wells during the year ending in June, marking a record high not seen since 2011.

The Ongoing Innovation

This remarkable achievement not only underscores the ongoing innovation and efficiency improvements within the energy sector but also provokes critical questions regarding the long-term implications for energy policy and environmental considerations. As production levels continue to rise, it is essential to recognize the transformative impact this growth may have on both local and global markets. Stakeholders—including policymakers, industry leaders, and environmental advocates—must engage in comprehensive dialogues to understand how these advancements can be strategically leveraged to meet increasing energy demands. Furthermore, this raises important inquiries about the sustainability of such production methods and the potential for technological solutions to mitigate adverse effects.

As the industry evolves, the challenge lies in navigating the intricate balance between satisfying immediate energy needs and committing to sustainable practices that align with broader climate goals. This includes exploring renewable energy sources, enhancing energy efficiency, and implementing responsible resource management. By fostering collaboration among diverse stakeholders, the sector can create a framework that not only prioritizes energy security but also promotes environmental stewardship. Therefore, the ongoing dialogue surrounding these developments is crucial, as it will determine the trajectory of energy policies and practices in the years to come, ultimately shaping a sustainable future for generations.

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Source: OK Energy Today

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