The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its forecasts for crude oil and lease condensate production in its September Short-Term Energy Outlook. It now expects U.S. output to average 13.83 million barrels per day in 2026 and 14.26 million in 2027, compared with August forecasts of 13.80 million and 14.15 million, respectively. The September report also puts 2025 production at 13.66 million barrels per day, up from the figure used in August.
The forecast shows output rising from 13.88 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2026 to 14.39 million in the final quarter of 2027. If the annual projection is realized, 2027 would be the first year U.S. crude production averages more than 14 million barrels per day. These figures are forecasts, while the 2025 figure reflects reported production.
The Lower 48 states outside the federal Gulf account for most of the projected output: 11.38 million barrels per day in 2026 and 11.87 million in 2027. The federal Gulf is projected to contribute 2.00 million and 1.89 million barrels per day in those years, while Alaska contributes 0.45 million and 0.50 million. Readers comparing national forecasts with individual wells can use Ranger’s guide to oil well production for context on daily production rates.
Source: Rigzone
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