The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s September Short-Term Energy Outlook projects global petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption at 102.59 million barrels per day in 2026, compared with production of 100.62 million barrels per day. That represents a 1.97 million-barrel-per-day supply gap, slightly wider than the agency’s August estimate of 1.91 million barrels per day. For 2027, the EIA expects consumption to average 104.98 million barrels per day while production reaches 109.88 million barrels per day, resulting in a 4.90 million-barrel-per-day surplus.
The EIA expects the 2026 supply gap to reach 2.96 million barrels per day in the third quarter before narrowing to 1.71 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Global oil inventories are estimated to have declined by about 400 million barrels so far this year. The agency now forecasts Brent crude to average around $90 per barrel during the second half of 2026, followed by an average of $74 per barrel in 2027 as production increases and inventories rebuild.
The outlook assumes Middle East oil exports will gradually increase as flows through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative routes improve, while some export limitations remain through the end of 2026. For mineral and royalty owners, these market developments provide useful context when reviewing factors affecting oil prices and how benchmark crude prices can influence wellhead pricing and oil and gas revenue.
Source: Rigzone
Read the full original article here
