The US oil industry probably passed the low point in the current cycle in July and August, with drilling rates set to start increasing from September or October and production turning up from March or April 2021.
Since hitting a low in late April, when the coronavirus epidemic was raging and lockdowns were most stringent, front-month US oil futures prices have progressively risen for the last 19 weeks.
Over the last 30 years, changes in futures prices have typically been followed by changes in drilling with an average delay of 4-5 months (15-20 weeks) and changes in output with an overall delay of 9-12 months.
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Source: ETEnergyworld
