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Global oil demand is set to grow for at least another decade. Goldman Sachs now expects global oil demand to peak in 2034, at around 110M bpd.

Oil demand to grow until 2034 as per Goldman Sachs

Global oil demand is set to grow for at least another decade. This is according to Goldman Sachs analysts, who see slowing momentum of electric vehicle sales. It is keeping oil product demand robust until 2034.

Analysts at the Wall Street bank raised their forecast of oil demand in 2030 to 108.5 million barrels per day (bpd). It is from 106 million bpd that is previously expected in a report carried by Reuters.

Goldman Sachs now expects global oil demand to peak in 2034, at around 110 million bpd. This will be followed by years of plateau oil demand until around 2040. It is according to the bank’s analysts led by Nikhil Bhandari.

“We expect peak oil demand to occur by 2034 at 110 million bpd. Subsequently, we project a moderate compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) demand decline of 0.3% till 2040.” This is what analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote in the report.

Most of the world’s global oil demand growth will come from emerging markets in Asia, led by China and India, say the analysts, echoing the views of all other forecasters who expect these two economies to be the top contributors to oil demand growth globally in the coming decade.

Separately, Goldman Sachs has recently said in a report that “Sales momentum for electric vehicles (EVs) is slowing globally, and hybrids (HEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) are proving more competitive than first thought.”

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Source: Oil Price

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OPEC estimates that global oil demand rose by 2.4M bpd in 1Q24. For the full year, total world oil demand is anticipated to reach 104.5M bpd.

OPEC remains optimistic about global oil demand growth

A resilient global economy early this year has additional upside potential in the second half with the possible easing of monetary policies. OPEC said on Tuesday, keeping its 2024 and 2025 outlook of robust oil demand unchanged from last month. In its closely-watched Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) out today. OPEC maintained its forecast from the April report. Which sees global oil demand growth by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) this year. And by another 1.85 million bpd next year.

OPEC estimates that global oil demand rose by 2.4 million bpd in the first quarter of 2024. For the full year, total world oil demand is due to reach 104.5 million bpd. Driven by “strong air travel demand and healthy road mobility, including trucking, as well as industrial, construction, and agricultural activities in non-OECD countries.”’

Petrochemical capacity expansions in China and the Middle East are also set to boost demand growth this year, according to the cartel.

“The global economy showed resilience in 1Q24, with key economies demonstrating stable growth that, in certain instances, surpassed initial projections,” OPEC said.

The organization kept its world economic growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 at 2.8% and 2.9%, respectively, but slightly raised its estimates of the U.S. economy this year and next. OPEC now expects the U.S. economy to grow by 2.2% this year, up from 2.1% in last month’s report, and by 1.9% next year, up by 0.2 percentage points compared to the April assessment.

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Source: Oil & Gas 360

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