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Oil prices have fallen for the second consecutive week, but a major bullish catalyst may be looming in early February.

Why oil prices could spike in February

Oil prices have fallen for the second consecutive week, but a major bullish catalyst may be looming in early February. So, Why oil prices could spike in February?

Oil prices will finish this week some $2 per barrel lower than a week ago as the January ICE Brent futures contract expires just below $77 per barrel. However, if Donald Trump’s February 1 deadline for Canada and Mexico leads to the US slapping punitive 25% sanctions, the second straight weekly decline could be cut short very quickly. If the threat does become a reality, the oil bulls will not stop until Brent is back above $80 per barrel.

Former IEA Employees Turn Against It. Just as the International Energy Agency came under severe criticism from Donald Trump due to its marked focus on climate change, a new report penned by the IEA’s former head of analysis identified 23 false assumptions in the organization’s peak-demand scenarios.

Investments into Clean Energy Hit New Record. Global investors invested $2.1 trillion into low-carbon energy for the first time on record in 2024. This is according to BloombergNEF. They achieved only 11% year-over-year growth. This is is slower than the 25% growth seen previously and only 37% of what is required to meet net zero emissions by 2050.

Cofee Is The New Cocoa of 2025.

Prices of arabica coffee continued to hit record highs this week as front-month ICE futures hit $3.74 per pound on Thursday. This is on the back of drought-hit tight supplies from Brazil and low coffee bean inventories from top roasters such as Nestle (SWX:NESN) or JDE Peet’s.

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Source: Oil Price

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China's oil demand may peak as it shifts to green energy, while Trump pushes U.S. to boost fossil fuel production.

Chinese oil peak demand meets ‘drill, baby, drill’

What happens when the world’s largest oil producer goes all-out to boost production just as the appetite of the world’s largest oil importer may be peaking? Demand of Chinese oil— which has accounted for half of all world oil demand growth over three decades — shows signs of levelling off thanks to slowing economic expansion and an epochal shift to green power and electric vehicles. Returning US President Donald Trump has, meanwhile, declared a national energy emergency intended to boost fossil fuel output, and begun to reverse the Biden administration’s green agenda. In theory, these dynamics might lead to an oil glut and falling prices. The reality is more complex.

The US-China divergence is at root about competing visions of energy security. Beijing’s embrace of renewable energy reflects less a noble conversion to saving the planet, and more a strategic determination to reduce dependence on imported oil. Conversely, alongside the popularity of his “drill, baby, drill” mantra among consumers balking at the costs of the green transition, Trump does not want the US to rely on a green energy supply chain dominated by China.

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Source: Financial Times

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Trump's first-day executive order aimed to boost US energy by easing oil and gas restrictions and revoking Biden's climate policies.

American energy – Trump signs executive order to unleash it

U.S. President Donald Trump signed on his first day in office an executive order to unleash American energy by easing the barriers to oil and gas extraction and production and revoking a series of climate orders by President Biden.

As pledged in the campaign and widely expected to take place on President Trump’s first day in office, the executive order follows the declaration of a national energy emergency.

The declaration includes measures to expedite the delivery of energy infrastructure, emergency approvals by agencies “to facilitate the identification, leasing, siting, production, transportation, refining, and generation of domestic energy resources, including, but not limited to, on Federal lands.”

In the executive order, the President’s sweeping new energy policy is to “encourage energy exploration and production on Federal lands and waters, including on the Outer Continental Shelf, in order to meet the needs of our citizens and solidify the United States as a global energy leader long into the future.”

The Executive Order

The President’s executive order also aims to establish the U.S. position as the leading producer and processor of non-fuel minerals, including rare earth minerals, “which will create jobs and prosperity at home, strengthen supply chains for the United States and its allies, and reduce the global influence of malign and adversarial states.”

The new policy also includes the elimination of the “electric vehicle (EV) mandate” and the promotion of true consumer choice, which is essential for economic growth and innovation, by removing regulatory barriers to motor vehicle access. The measure would ensure a level regulatory playing field for consumer choice in vehicles, the Trump White House said.

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Source: Oil Price

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South Korea plans to boost U.S. oil and LNG imports amid Middle East tensions and Trump’s energy export policies.

South Korea considering buying more US oil and gas, industry minister says

South Korea is interested in importing more U.S. oil and gas to diversify energy sources and ensure stable supplies given tensions in the Middle East, the country’s industry minister Ahn Duk-geun said on Thursday.

The government may need to increase support for the purchase of non-Middle East oil, he told reporters in Seoul.

His comments come as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who takes office on Jan. 20, has vowed to impose tariffs of 10% on global imports into the U.S., and said the European Union should step up U.S. oil and gas imports or face tariffs on the bloc’s exports, including on goods such as cars and machinery.

In 2024, South Korea posted a record $55.7 billion trade surplus with the United States, up 25.4% from a year earlier.

South Korea was the world’s fourth-largest buyer of crude oil and the third-biggest liquefied natural gas (LNG) importer.

South Korea has deepened its reliance on crude oil imports from the Middle East, which accounted for 72% of total imports in 2023, up from 60% in 2021, according to the energy ministry.

For LNG, South Korea imported 47.2 million metric tons of the super-chilled fuel in 2024, of which 5.7 million metric tons were from the U.S., according to data from analytics firm Kpler.

Other LNG-importing countries such as Vietnam could also buy from the U.S. to ease its large trade surplus with the world’s top economy, said a senior Hanoi-based diplomat.

The U.S. is the world’s top LNG exporter.

Sources said that Trump plans to make it easier for some LNG producers to seek export permit renewals, while his pick to head the U.S. Energy Department told senators that his first priority is expanding domestic energy production, including LNG.

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Source: Natural Gas World

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OPEC projects

OPEC projects robust oil demand growth for 2025 and 2026

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC projects) has released its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) that covers major issues affecting global oil markets and provides the outlook for crude oil market developments. OPEC has reiterated its earlier forecast that global oil demand will expand at a robust clip at 1.4 mb/d in 2025, largely driven by strong non-OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) growth. OPEC sees non-OECD demand growth clocking in at 1.3 mb/d, compared with just 0.1 mb/d for the 38-member international alliance. According to OPEC, this robust demand will continue in 2026 with global oil demand forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d Y/Y. Again, non-OECD countries will do the heavy lifting with demand growth expected to come in at 1.3 mb/d vs. 0.1 mb/d for OECD.

On the supply side, OPEC has forecast non-DoC liquids supply (i.e., liquids supply from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) to grow by 1.1 mb/d Y/Y in 2025, mainly driven by production growth in the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Norway. Non-DoC liquids supply growth in 2026 is expected to clock in at 1.1 mb/d, mainly driven by the U.S., Brazil and Canada. Meanwhile, DoC supply of natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by about 90 tb/d Y/Y in 2025, to average 8.4 mb/d, and by 0.1 mb/ Y/Y in 2026 to average 8.5 mb/d.

The Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) is a loosely coupled organization that started in 2016. It constitutes the coordination between OPEC member countries with 11 non-OPEC oil producing countries (now 10 – Equatorial Guinea became an OPEC Member in May 2017) in a concerted effort to stabilize the global oil market. DoC was effective for an initial period of six months, but has been extended multiple times thanks to its success.

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Source: Oil Price

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President-elect Donald Trump plans to reverse Biden's offshore drilling ban; however, it requires congressional approval to do so.

Trump plans to ‘immediately’ reverse Biden’s ‘ridiculous’ ban on new oil and gas drilling along US coast

President-elect Donald Trump said he plans to immediately reverse President Biden’s new ban on oil and gas drilling. This is along most of the U.S. coastline. He faces major roadblocks under a 70-year, irrevocable law.

Throughout his 2024 presidential campaign, Trump vowed that, if elected, he would expand oil and gas drilling. This is an effort to bolster American-made energy.

However, Biden issued an 11th-hour executive order Monday morning to forestall such actions. This is exactly two weeks before his term ends, announcing a permanent stop to most new oil and gas drilling across U.S. coastal and offshore waters in an area that spans about 625 million acres.

“It’s ridiculous. I’ll unban it immediately,” Trump said on “The Hugh Hewitt Show” on Monday. “What’s he doing?”

“We can’t let that happen to our country,” Trump added. “It’s really our greatest economic asset.”

The executive order, issued under the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act (OCSLA), seeks to block future oil and natural gas leasing along the East and West coasts, the eastern Gulf of Mexico and portions of Alaska’s Northern Bering Sea.

Trump said that he “has the right” to reverse such an action, but given that Biden issued the order under a 1953 law that allows the president to enact bans on oil and gas development, he would not be able to simply reverse it.

In 2019, during Trump’s first term, a federal judge ruled that OCSLA does not permit presidents to overturn bans established by previous administrations. This means Trump would need congressional approval to reverse Biden’s decision.

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Source: Fox News

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Robust US economic data and a larger-than-expected crude inventory continue to bolster the outlook for the economy and oil demand.

Oil prices climb on OPEC data and a strong US economy

Crude oil prices climb higher today, after the release of production data from OPEC and Russia, showing both declined in December.

The recent employment survey released by the United States has unveiled a promising outlook for the economy, which has significant implications for the oil market. The data indicates that layoffs remain notably low, a trend that reflects not only a stable job market but also a growing confidence among employers. This stability is crucial, as it suggests that businesses are not only retaining their workforce but are also investing in their employees through retention strategies. Moreover, the survey highlights an increase in job openings, signaling that companies are expanding operations and seeking to hire additional talent. This surge in job availability is a strong indicator of economic vitality, as it reflects a demand for goods and services that often correlates with increased energy consumption.

The implications of these employment trends are particularly bullish for the oil market. As economic activity ramps up, the demand for oil typically rises in tandem, driven by the need for transportation fuels, industrial energy, and heating. Additionally, a robust job market generally translates to higher consumer confidence, which can lead to increased spending on travel and leisure activities, further boosting oil consumption. Investors are likely to view these positive employment figures as a harbinger of sustained economic growth, which could lead to a tighter oil supply-demand balance. As such, the synergy between a healthy labor market and the oil industry may serve to reinforce upward price pressures, making the current economic landscape particularly favorable for oil market stakeholders.

The Latest Market Update on Oil Prices Climb

As of the latest market update, Brent crude oil is currently trading at $77.34 per barrel, reflecting a notable increase from its opening price earlier in the trading session. This upward movement in Brent crude prices can be attributed to a variety of factors, including geopolitical tensions, supply constraints, and fluctuations in global demand. Investors and analysts are closely monitoring these developments, as they have significant implications for both the energy market and the broader economy. The ongoing recovery from pandemic-related disruptions and shifts in consumption patterns are also contributing to the volatility observed in oil prices.

In parallel, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is tradeable at $74.65 per barrel, also showing an increase from its opening value. The rise in WTI prices is indicative of the overall bullish sentiment in the oil market, driven by expectations of recovering demand as economies continue to emerge from pandemic restrictions. Furthermore, factors such as inventory levels, production cuts by OPEC+, and seasonal variations in consumption can heavily influence WTI pricing. Market participants are to remain vigilant as these variables evolve, as they will play a crucial role in shaping future oil price trajectories and influencing strategic decisions for businesses across various sectors.

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Source: Oil Price

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Trump's promised deregulation in the oil and gas industry with faster permitting could hit a wall of continuously growing global supply.

Trump’s oil plans meet market glut in 2025

President-elect Donald Trump’s oil plans on policies could boost U.S. crude production beyond the currently estimated growth.

However, Trump’s vow to “drill, baby, drill” and the promised deregulation in the oil and gas industry with faster permitting could hit a wall of continuously growing global supply. This higher production from non-OPEC+ producers is set to tilt the market into a large surplus in 2025, even if OPEC+ keeps its current commitment to begin bringing back supply from April, analysts and forecasters say.

The current state of the oil market indicates a significant shift in the supply-demand equation, with projections suggesting that supply could surpass demand by approximately 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in the coming year. This oversupply scenario raises important questions regarding pricing dynamics and market stability, as an excess in supply often leads to downward pressure on oil prices. However, seasoned market observers are acutely aware that the interplay of geopolitics will significantly influence oil prices moving forward. Factors such as international relations, regulatory changes, and geopolitical tensions can create volatility that may counteract the anticipated supply surplus.

Geopolitical Factors

Among the myriad geopolitical factors at play, former President Trump’s have policies toward key oil-producing nations. This is specifically Iran, Venezuela, and Russia—emerge as the most significant wildcard influencing future market conditions. The potential for sanctions, trade agreements, or military actions could have far-reaching implications for global oil supply and pricing structures. Furthermore, the discussion surrounding tariffs on energy products could also reverberate through the American economy, affecting domestic energy prices and, by extension, the broader global economic landscape. As such, stakeholders across the energy sector must remain vigilant and adaptable, closely monitoring these developments to navigate the complexities of an evolving market environment.

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Source: Oil Price

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Oil and gas execs

Oil and gas execs optimistic as Trump returns, Dallas Fed says

In the aftermath of President-elect Donald Trump’s victory in November, executives within the oil and gas execs and sector have expressed a renewed sense of optimism. This is regarding their companies’ future prospects. This sentiment shift is a highlight in the latest energy survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. It says that 57 percent of industry leaders anticipate an increase in capital spending for 2025 compared to the previous year. This positive outlook reflects a broader confidence in the regulatory and economic environment that the incoming administration may create, suggesting that executives feel more empowered to invest in growth and development initiatives that could enhance operational efficiency and expand production capabilities.
However, the survey results also indicate a contrasting perspective among larger producers in the industry. Notably, 50 percent of executives from these major companies, which are defined as those producing 10,000 barrels or more per day, projected a decline in spending for the current year. Conversely, only 36 percent indicated that their capital expenditures might see a slight uptick. This divergence is particularly significant, as large producers are responsible for approximately 80 percent of the United States’ total oil and gas output, meaning their investment decisions have far-reaching implications for the overall health of the industry. The cautious stance among these larger firms could signal a careful approach to navigating potential market fluctuations, regulatory changes, and evolving demand dynamics in a post-election landscape.

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Source: E&E News

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Trump's return may spark a boom in US natural gas, as LNG exports grow, tech demand rises & companies shift focus from oil to gas production.

Drill, Baby, Drill 2.0: Why Trump’s return will bring blockbuster years for natural gas

In October 2008, the economy reeling from the onset of the Great Recession. Oil prices having spiked to $147 per barrel ($211 in today’s money). Vice Presidential candidate Joe Biden was asked during a debate to contrast his party’s energy policy with that of the Republicans. Biden said that their “only answer is drill, drill, drill. Drill baby we must, but it will take 10 years for one drop of oil to come out of any of the wells that are going to be drilled.”

His vice presidential opponent Sarah Palin pounced; “The chant is ‘drill, baby, drill.’ And that’s what we hear all across this country… because people are so hungry for those domestic sources of energy to be tapped into.”

Biden and Obama won that election, though Biden woefully underestimated American ingenuity. During the Obama years drillers boosted natural gas production by 45% to 92 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), while oil output more than doubled to 9 million barrels per day (bpd).

During the 2008 presidential campaign, Sarah Palin, the then-governor of Alaska and the Republican vice presidential nominee, seized the opportunity to emphasize the urgent demand for domestic energy resources. In her rallying cry, she declared, “The chant is ‘drill, baby, drill.. And that’s what we hear all across this country. It is because people are so hungry for those domestic sources of energy to be tapped into”. This statement resonated with many Americans who were increasingly concerned about rising energy prices and the nation’s reliance on foreign oil. Palin’s remarks highlighted a growing sentiment among the electorate, advocating for the exploration and utilization of domestic energy reserves as a means to achieve energy independence and alleviate economic pressures faced by households across the nation.

Fervent Calls for Increased Drilling

Despite these fervent calls for increased drilling, Joe Biden and Barack Obama ultimately emerged victorious in the 2008 election. Biden underestimated the resilience and adaptability of American ingenuity in the energy sector. The Obama administration witnessed a remarkable transformation in energy production. The advances in technology and drilling techniques led to a significant surge in domestic output. Natural gas production soared by an impressive 45%. It was reaching approximately 92 billion cubic feet per day. On the other hand, oil production more than doubled. It’s climbing to roughly 9 million barrels per day. This dramatic increase not only underscored the potential of American energy resources. It also contributed to a shift in the global energy landscape, positioning the United States as a leading producer of both oil and natural gas.

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Source: Forbes

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