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As the oil sector deal-making starts to show signs of recovery. Brookfield Renewable Partners will acquire Australia’s Origin Energy utility for over $10 billion. On the other hand, the Permian basin has scored oil and gas deal. It was a sweeping victory with a $1.45-billion asset sale.

On Monday, a consortium led by Brookfield said it had agreed to acquire Origin (OTCPK:OGFGF). It is a whopping $12.4-billion deal including debt.

The deal will render Origin Australia’s biggest energy retailer and integrated power provider. Separately, one of the consortium partners, MidOcean Energy, will own Origin’s gas segment. This includes upstream interests and a hefty stake in Australia Pacific LNG. Origin is eyeing a minimum of $20 billion in new investment over the next ten years. It is for the construction of up to 14 GW of renewable power generation and storage facilities in Australia. Also on Monday, in the Permian basin, Energy Transfer Lp (NYSE:ET) said it would acquire Lotus Midstream pipeline operator in a $1.45-billion deal. Energy Transfer will pay $900 million in cash and the remainder in shares.

The Permian deal saw shares of Energy Transfer gain 1% in premarket trading. But then pared those gains to a slight increase of 0.17% by 10:30 a.m. EST on Monday. Energy sector deals have lagged since the COVID pandemic. It started to show signs of recovery over the past 12 months, with investment in S&P 500-listed oil and gas companies up more than 26% in the past year, according to Forbes, outperforming the rest of the index, which lost 5% in the same time period.

The waning notion of peak oil demand has injected more life into dealmaking in the oil and gas sector, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) now projecting that consumption will not only hit a new high this year but will continue on the upward trend beyond the next decade and a half.

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Source: Oil Price

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Oil prices appear to have taken a break from focusing on macro events, with increasing demand and disruptions in supply pushing oil prices higher at the start of the week. The real news for oil markets this week, however, will come from the Fed’s meeting. Let’s talk more about oil market fundamentals.

As French strikes are moving into their third week and at least four refineries are winding down operations due to blocked ports and overflowing stocks, Europe’s diesel woes are making a counter-seasonal comeback.

French refining, recording 990,000 b/d in the last reported month of January 2023, is heavily geared towards diesel, but cannot meet the country’s hefty 850,000 b/d demand for the product.

– Consequently, the spread between the prompt and second month of Europe’s diesel benchmark contract, the ICE low-sulfur diesel, rose to a premium of $35 per barrel, the highest since November 2022.

– France might be the epicenter of the diesel squeeze because the blockage of import terminals across the country is limiting diesel importers from buying products, with diesel imports falling 50% this month compared to February.

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Source: Oil Price

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Oil rises again on Tuesday, extending a recovery from a 15-month low hit the previous day, as the rescue of Credit Suisse eased worries about global banking sector risks that could hit economic growth and fuel demand.

After jitters initially, on Monday the mood across financial markets has lifted in the wake of UBS’ takeover of Credit Suisse and after major central banks said they would enhance market liquidity and support the banking system.

Brent crude was up 70 cents, or 0.95%, at $74.49 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also gained 81 cents, or 1.20%, trading at $68.45.

“Banking jitters may have taken a breather yesterday but remain in play,” said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.

“Although an immediate crisis appears to have been averted there are still fears of another sell-off.”

The next focus for investors is the decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday on whether and by how much to raise interest rates when it concludes its two-day meeting.

Since the banking strife began this month, markets have revised expectations for the next Fed rate hike to 25 basis points from 50 bps.

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Source: Oil & Gas 360

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Drilling activity in the US oil and gas output increased by 51.3pc on an average yearly basis in 2022, driving crude production up to 11.9mn bl/d and marking a 6.4pc increase compared with the 11.2mn bl/d averaged in 2021. The increased output was augmented by US companies completing a large backlog of drilled-but-uncompleted (Duc) wells in two major oil shale basins.

WTI started 2022 at $83.22/bl and climbed steadily throughout the year, despite rising interest rates, fears of economic recession, and restricted Russian supply caused by the war in Ukraine. Crude prices hit a 15-year high in June 2022, at $114.84/bl, before falling back down and ending the year at $76.44/bl.

In 2024, we forecast that crude oil production in the Permian will increase by 350,000 b/d, while production in the GOM declines slightly. We forecast that production in other U.S. crude oil-producing regions increases by 70,000 b/d in 2024.

We forecast the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price will average $77 per barrel (b) in 2023 and $72/b in 2024, down from $95/b in 2022. Despite declining crude oil prices, we expect the WTI price will remain high enough to support crude oil production growth, especially in the Permian, where data from the Dallas Fed Energy Survey indicate that average breakeven prices range from $50/b to $54/b.

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Source: PE Media Network

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Rystad Energy’s research shows that annual greenfield capital expenditure (capex) broke the $100 billion threshold in 2022. It will break it again in 2023. This is the first breach for two straight years between 2012 and 2013. The company claims that the offshore oil and gas sector is set for “the highest growth in a decade in the next two years,”. It will have a $214 billion growth of new project investments lined up.

The energy market intelligence provider outlines an expectation of offshore activity to account for 68 percent. It is for all sanctioned conventional hydrocarbons in 2023 and 2024. It will be up from 40 percent between 2015-2018. This is as global fossil fuel demand remains strong and countries look for carbon-friendly production sources.

Rystad highlights that offshore developments will make up almost half of all sanctioned projects in the next two years. It will be up from just 29 percent from 2015-2018 in terms of total project count.

Furthermore, the new investments will be a boon for the offshore services market. With supply chain spending to grow 16 percent in 2023 and 2024, a decade-high year-on-year increase of $21 billion. In line with this, offshore rigs, vessels, subsea and floating production storage, and offloading (FPSO) activity are all set to flourish.

Leading Global Drivers on Offshore Oil and Gas

Rystad underlines that one of the leading global drivers is the sizable expansion of offshore activities in the Middle East. This is as offshore upstream spending in the region will surpass all others for the first time. It was lifted by mammoth projects in Saudi ArabiaQatar, and the UAE.

The region’s offshore spending growth looks set to continue at least for the next three years, growing from $33 billion this year to $41 billion in 2025. Rystad underscores that these countries are tapping into their vast offshore resources to meet rising global oil demand, backed by the necessary capital and infrastructure to outpace other producers.

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Source: Offshore Energy

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Oil prices rise by more than 1% on Friday. This is after better-than-expected U.S. employment data. Both benchmarks fell more than 3% on the week on U.S. interest rate hike jitters.

Brent rose $1.19, or 1.5%, to $82.78 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was up 96 cents, or 1.3%, at $76.68.

Expectations of further rate hikes in the world’s largest economy and in Europe have clouded the global growth outlook. It is due to both crude benchmarks down this week.

However, the U.S. Federal Reserve may have less reason to raise interest rates as aggressively as some is fearing. After a government report on Friday. it gives hopes of easing inflation amid signs the pandemic-disrupted labor market is normalizing.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has warned of higher and potentially faster rate hikes, saying the central bank was wrong in initially thinking inflation was “transitory”. Its next monetary policy meeting is planned for March 21-22.

“Oil prices are fluctuating wildly on renewed fears of Fed interest rate increases,” said Price Group analyst Phil Flynn.

A strengthening dollar is also making oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Global shares, which often move in tandem with oil prices, hit a two-month low as investors dumped banks.

Broader U.S. employment data for February beat expectations with nonfarm payrolls rising by 311,000, compared with expectations of 205,000 jobs added, according to a Reuters survey. This is likely to ensure that the Fed will raise interest rates for longer, which analysts have said would weigh on oil prices.

On the supply side, major oil producers Saudi Arabia and Iran, both members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, re-established ties after days of previously undisclosed talks in Beijing.

U.S. oil rigs fell by 2 to 590 this week, their lowest since June, according to data from Baker Hughes.

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Source: Street Insider

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The offshore oil and gas (O&G) sector is set for the highest growth in a decade in the next two years. It is with $214 billion of new project investments in line. Rystad Energy’s research shows that annual greenfield capital expenditure (capex) will break the $100 billion threshold. This is a projection in 2023 and in 2024 – the first breach for two straight years since 2012 and 2013.

As global fossil fuel demand remains strong and countries look for carbon-friendly production sources, offshore is back in the spotlight. Offshore activity is expected to account for 68% of all sanctioned conventional hydrocarbons in 2023 and 2024. This is up from 40% between 2015-2018. Comparisons against this period are prudent as it predates the Covid-19 pandemic and related oil price crashes. In terms of total project count, offshore developments will make up almost half of all sanctioned projects in the next two years. This is up from just 29% from 2015-2018.

The New Offshore Oil And Gas Investments

These new investments will be a boon for the offshore services market. With supply chain spending to grow 16% in 2023 and 2024, a decade-high year-on-year increase of $21 billion. Offshore rigs, vessels, subsea and floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) activity are all set to flourish.

One of the leading global drivers is the sizable expansion of offshore activities in the Middle East. For the first time, offshore upstream spending in the region will surpass all others, lifted by mammoth projects in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. The area’s offshore spending growth looks set to continue at least for the next three years, growing from $33 billion this year to $41 billion in 2025. These countries are tapping into their vast offshore resources to meet rising global oil demand, backed by the necessary capital and infrastructure to outpace other producers.

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Source: Oil Price

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Oil prices could hit the $90-$100 per barrel range in the second half of this year as global demand is set to reach record levels amid constrained supply, Russell Hardy, CEO at the world’s largest independent top energy trader, Vitol Group, told Bloomberg Television on Monday.

“The prospect of higher prices in the second half of the year, in the sort of $90-$100 range, is a real possibility”. This is what Hardy told Bloomberg in an interview.

According to Hardy, global oil demand will rise by 2.2 million barrels per day (BPD) in 2023. This is in comparison to 2022 and will reach a record level. It was driven by a jump in diesel, naphtha, and liquid petroleum gas (LPG) demand.

“You don’t have much room on the supply side is the reality. So the potential for a rally is certainly there”. Hardy told Bloomberg.

The Peak Oil Demand

Peak oil demand is expected to come around the end of this decade. This is amid rapid decarbonization, but investment in oil supply will still be needed, Vitol’s top executive said.

Major U.S. shale operator Pioneer Natural Resources also sees $100 per barrel by the end of the year. Meanwhile, some banks are not convinced prices will hit triple digits in 2023.

With a significant pickup in Chinese demand, Brent Crude prices “will break $90 this summer. It will climb back up to $100 sometime in the second half of the year”. Pioneer CEO Scott Sheffield said earlier this month.

Brent Crude prices are not expected to reach $100 per barrel in 2023. This is unless a major geopolitical event rattles markets again. This is what JPMorgan said this month. Russian crude oil production is expected to recover by June, while high price levels would prevent the U.S. from repurchasing crude to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), according to the Wall Street bank.

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Source: Oil Price

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Oil prices rose nearly 2% on Tuesday. It erases the previous session’s losses as hopes for a strong economic rebound in China offset worries about U.S. interest rate hikes. It is dragging down consumption in the world’s biggest economy. Here is how oil rebounds

Brent crude futures for April, which expired on Tuesday, settled higher by $1.44, or 1.8%, at $83.89 a barrel. The more active May contract rose $1.41, or 1.7%, to $83.45.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained $1.37, or 1.8%, to $77.05 a barrel.

“We’re getting to a point where we’re seeing some short-covering. It is because it’s the end of the month,” said Price Group analyst Phil Flynn.

For the month of February, Brent fell about 0.7%, while WTI dropped about 2.5%.

Expectations of demand recovery in China underpinned gains, with the market awaiting key data over the next two days. Economists polled by Reuters expected that factory activity in the world’s second-largest economy grew in February.

“China’s economic recovery will drive its demand for commodities higher, with oil positioned to benefit the most,” JPMorgan analysts said in a client note.

Urals crude exports to China from Russia’s Western ports rose in February from the previous month, on lower freight costs and rising demand, Reuters sources said.

Oil prices are expected to rise above $90 a barrel toward the second half of 2023 as Chinese demand recovers and Russian output falls, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.

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Source: Reuters

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Oil prices rise on Thursday on expectations that Russia will cut its oil exports more than previously announced.

International benchmark Brent crude traded at $80.79 per barrel at 9.35 a.m. local time (0635 GMT), up 0.24% from the closing price of $80.60 a barrel in the previous trading session.

At the same time, American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded at $74.14 per barrel, a 0.26% rise after the previous session closed at $73.95 a barrel.

A bigger output cut by major oil producers will put pressure on global supply.

Russia is expected to cut oil production by 500,000 barrels per day in March, but reports indicate that the country may cut supply even further. The country is reducing its supply in response to Western sanctions against Russian oil exports.

The EU ban on Russian seaborne oil products, as well as a price cap of $100 per barrel on premium Russian oil products such as diesel, and a price cap of $45 per barrel on discounted products such as fuel oil, went into effect on Feb. 5.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak warned at the beginning of the month that Western countries’ price caps on Russian oil and petroleum products could cause supply problems on the market.

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Source: AA

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