$40 Oil Isn’t Enough For Saudi Arabia

Despite the recommendation of the OPEC+ JMMC to ease the oil output cuts by 2 million bbl/d, oil markets maintained their bullish sentiment over the past week as Brent was trading above $43 while WTI was trading above $40. A surge in COVID-19 cases in several counties including the US, Spain, and Australia capped oil price gains.

Bullish figures from the EIA

Markets were primarily supported by a continued withdrawal in commercial crude inventories which declined by 7.5 million barrels w/w to stand at 531.7 million barrels. Gasoline inventories also declined by 3.1 million barrels w/w reflecting a significant rise in demand levels. Along the decline in inventories, crude imports fell by 1.83 million bbl/d w/w and are currently standing at 5.57 million bbl/d, which may be part of the reason for the drop in inventories. The other reason for the decline in inventories is the balance in the markets where demand now exceeds supply, something we had anticipated, last April, to take place in July.

We currently expect commercial inventories to continue to decline especially during July and August as these months historically are the peak of driving season. U.S. oil production continues to be fixed at 11 million bbl/d for the 3rd consecutive week. The decline in oil rigs continues, with the latest figure being 1 rig w/w, and it may have already reached its lowest level at around 180 rigs.

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Source: Oil Price

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