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Oil prices rice

Oil prices rise as inflation eases, bolstering market hopes for Fed rate cut later this year

KEY POINTS
-Crude oil futures climbed on Thursday, getting a lift from cooling inflation data.
-The consumer price index fell 0.1% in June from the prior month, bringing the 12-month rate to 3%.
-The inflation data bolstered hopes for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in September. Lower rates stimulate economic growth, which can boost demand for oil.

Crude oil futures rose Thursday as inflation eased, bolstering hopes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this year.

Inflation as measured by the consumer price index dropped 0.1% from May to June, putting the 12-month rate at 3%, near the lowest level in more than three years, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.

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Source: CNBC

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The EIA forecasts that crude production from the Permian Basin will average about 6.3M barrels per day this year, an increase of 8% over 2023

EIA: Permian oil output to surge 8% in 2024

Once again, the Permian Basin is expected to lead growth in the nation’s overall oil production as per EIA.

The Energy Information Administration forecasts that crude production from the Permian Basin will average about 6.3 million barrels per day this year. This is an increase of 8% over 2023 and accounting for nearly half of all crude production.

Permian production will contribute about two thirds of all US oil production through the end of 2025. This is according to the EIA’s June Short-Term Energy Outlook. The EIA expects increased production from the Permian. It also affect regions since it will drive US production to record highs in both 2024 and 2025.

“The Permian region’s proximity to crude oil refine and export terminals on the Gulf Coast. It established takeaway capacity and improved new well productivity to support crude oil production growth in the region,” the EIA wrote in its June 2024 Short-Term Energy Outlook.

“Without a doubt, the mighty Permian Basin is the major factor. It makes Texas the 8th largest economy in the world”. This is what Todd Staples, president of the Texas Oil & Gas Association, commented to the Reporter-Telegram by email.

“The Permian Basin leads US energy production. It single-handedly contributing nearly 45% of domestic oil production, thanks to its phenomenal reserves, private sector investment in infrastructure, and Texas’ welcoming business climate that includes a stable regulatory environment,” he continued.

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Source: mrt

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Oil prices found support after U.S. commercial crude stockpiles declined by 1.4 million barrels in the first week of May.

US crude oil recovers losses after surprise stockpile decline

Crude oil futures rose Wednesday, recovering losses from earlier in the session as U.S. crude inventories fell.

Oil prices found support after U.S. commercial crude stockpiles declined by 1.4 million barrels in the first week of May, according to official data from the Energy Information Administration. The decline was a surprise compared to industry data that indicated a 509,000 barrel buildup.

Prices have come under pressure as of late on rising inventories with U.S. stockpiles surging in the last week of April.

“Oil market indicators have turned softer in recent weeks, and prices have declined from recent peaks,” Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research note. “The oil market is not tight now, but we see seasonal strength ahead in coming months.”

Here are Wednesday’s closing energy prices:

  • West Texas Intermediate – June contract: $78.99 a barrel, up 61 cents, or 0.78%. Year to date, U.S. crude oil has risen 10%.
  • Brent July contract: $83.58 a barrel, up 42 cents, or 0.51%. Year to date, the global benchmark has risen 8.5%.
  • RBOB Gasoline – June contract: $2.53 per gallon, down 0.46%. Year to date, gasoline futures are up about 20%.
  • Natural Gas-  June contract: $2.19 per thousand cubic feet, down 0.91%. Year to date, gas is down 13%.

Oil prices have fallen more than 7% since reaching their April highs when traders bid up prices on fears that Iran and Israel would go to war. Investors have largely sold off the war premium since then, with Morgan Stanley removing $4 per barrel of risk from its oil price forecast for the year.

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Source: CNBC

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Crude oil production in the Permian Basin is expected to rise by nearly 8% this year. It accounts for nearly half of US crude oil production.

EIA: Permian Basin to help drive record oil production levels in 2024, 2025

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil production in the Permian Basin, which spans western Texas and southeastern New Mexico, is expected to rise by nearly 8% this year. The basin accounts for nearly half of U.S. crude oil production.

On Tuesday (June 11), the EIA released the June Short-Term Energy Outlook that shows crude oil production in the Permian Basin will average about 6.3 million barrels per day in 2024, up almost 8% from 2023. The increased production in this and other regions will contribute to successive crude oil production records in the United States in 2024 and 2025.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has recently introduced an enhancement to its Short-Term Energy Outlook reports by incorporating detailed regional forecasts for the primary oil and natural gas production areas in the United States. This development reflects the agency’s commitment to providing a comprehensive and granular analysis of energy trends across the country. By specifically focusing on key regions such as Appalachia, Bakken, Eagle Ford, Haynesville, and Permian, the EIA aims to offer stakeholders, policymakers, and industry experts a more nuanced understanding of the dynamics shaping the energy landscape at a local level.

Inclusion of Regional Forecasts

The inclusion of these regional forecasts not only enables a more detailed assessment of production trends. Moreovre, it also facilitates a deeper exploration of factors influencing supply and demand dynamics in specific geographic areas. This new approach underscores the EIA’s dedication to delivering insights that support informed decision-making. The strategic planning within the energy sector is also seen. This sheds light on regional variations in oil and gas production. Also, the EIA’s expanded Short-Term Energy Outlook reports serve as a valuable resource for industry professionals. More are now seeking to navigate the complexities of the US energy market with greater precision and foresight.

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Source: TB&P

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For now, gas prices are right around where they were last year, at $3.49 per gallon

OPEC+ oil cuts probably won’t move gas prices — but this wild card could

Thousands of miles away from Americans budgeting for their summer road trips. OPEC+ leaders decided Sunday to stick with crude-oil production cuts lasting through 2025. This is while laying out a plan to begin phasing out another tier of output curbs beginning in the fourth quarter.

Though crude-oil prices are easily the top cost inside a gallon of gas. Drivers at the pump shouldn’t expect big price moves as a direct result of the OPEC+ decision, gas experts say.

Gas-price increases could hinge on what type of hurricane season comes to the Gulf Coast. Its oil refineries later this summer they note. Weather forecasters have been bracing for a very active hurricane season.

Americans have been holding their breath on upcoming expenses, with many looking to road trips as affordable summer fun.

But first, put it in reverse to see what the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies decided at its Sunday meeting.

OPEC+ agreed to extend two different production cuts totaling 3.66 million barrels day through 2025. These curbs were supposed to conclude at the end of this year but were widely expected to be rolled over into next year.

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Source: Market Watch

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US natural gas prices are set for structural upside over the next 20 years as incremental demand from data centres and AI has prompted a gas generation renaissance.

High demand sends LNG prices climbing around the world

Mexican Crude Production Collapses Ahead of Elections – High demand sends LNG prices climbing around the world!

– Providing a somber reflection on Mexico’s upstream industry before the June 2 general election, crude production by Mexico’s state oil company Pemex fell below 1.5 million b/d for the first time in over 40 years.

– April’s crude output of 1.474 million b/d represents an almost 200,000 b/d year-over-year drop. It marks a new trough for the country! This is the lowest point since Mexico started producing from the giant Cantarell field and tapped into its prolific offshore waters in the late 1970s.

– The Lopez Obrador government forbade new hydrocarbon bidding rounds. It has instructed Pemex to focus on onshore and shallow-water fields rather than investing into higher-risk projects.

– Higher condensate production from onshore assets such as Ixachi or Quesqui offset some of the declines in total supply figures, however not enough to halt the tide of legacy declines.

Could AI Gas Demand Lift US Natural Gas Prices

– US natural gas prices are set for structural upside over the next 20 years as incremental demand from data centres and AI has prompted a gas generation renaissance.

– According to WoodMackenzie, the growth in US natural gas demand could amount to as much as 30 BCf/d, pushing Henry Hub futures above $4 per mmBtu by 2035 and closer to $6 per mmBtu by 2045.

– Electricity demand from data centers currently adds up to 11 GW of generation, but this should…

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Source: Oil Price

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Oil prices found support after U.S. commercial crude stockpiles declined by 1.4 million barrels in the first week of May.

US crude oil recovers losses after surprise stockpile decline

Crude oil futures rose Wednesday, recovering losses from earlier in the session as U.S. crude inventories fell.

Oil prices found support after U.S. commercial crude stockpiles declined by 1.4 million barrels in the first week of May, according to official data from the Energy Information Administration. The decline was a surprise compared to industry data that indicated a 509,000 barrel buildup.

Prices have come under pressure as of late on rising inventories with U.S. stockpiles surging in the last week of April.

“Oil market indicators have turned softer in recent weeks, and prices have declined from recent peaks,” Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research note. “The oil market is not tight now, but we see seasonal strength ahead in coming months.”

Here are Wednesday’s closing energy prices:

  • West Texas Intermediate – June contract: $78.99 a barrel, up 61 cents, or 0.78%. Year to date, U.S. crude oil has risen 10%.
  • Brent July contract: $83.58 a barrel, up 42 cents, or 0.51%. Year to date, the global benchmark has risen 8.5%.
  • RBOB Gasoline – June contract: $2.53 per gallon, down 0.46%. Year to date, gasoline futures are up about 20%.
  • Natural Gas-  June contract: $2.19 per thousand cubic feet, down 0.91%. Year to date, gas is down 13%.

Oil prices have fallen more than 7% since reaching their April highs when traders bid up prices on fears that Iran and Israel would go to war. Investors have largely sold off the war premium since then, with Morgan Stanley removing $4 per barrel of risk from its oil price forecast for the year.

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Source: CNBC

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By the end of this decade, the report found, the fossil-fuel industry aims to sanction nearly four times this amount – 31bn barrels of oil equivalent – across 64 additional new oil and gas fields.

World set to quadruple oil and gas production by 2030, led by new US projects

The world’s fossil-fuel producers are on track to nearly quadruple oil and gas production from newly approved projects by the end of this decade, with the US leading the way in a surge of activity that threatens to blow apart agreed climate goals, a new report has found.

There can be no new oil and gas infrastructure if the planet is to avoid careering past 1.5C (2.7F) of global heating, above pre-industrial times, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has previously stated. Breaching this warming threshold, agreed to by governments in the Paris climate agreement, will see ever worsening effects such as heatwaves, floods, drought and more, scientists have warned.

But since the IEA’s declaration in 2021, countries and major fossil fuel companies have forged ahead with a glut of new oil and gas activity. At least 20bn barrels of oil equivalent of new oil and gas has been discovered for future drilling since this point, according to the new report by Global Energy Monitor, a San Francisco-based NGO.

Last year, at least 20 oil and gas fields were readied and approved for extraction following discovery, sanctioning the removal of 8bn barrels of oil equivalent. By the end of this decade, the report found, the fossil-fuel industry aims to sanction nearly four times this amount – 31bn barrels of oil equivalent – across 64 additional new oil and gas fields.

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Source: Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

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Crude oil futures rose Wednesday as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that interest rates will likely come down this year.

Oil prices rise more than 1% on Fed rate cut outlook, signs of rising gasoline demand

Signs of Rising Gasoline Demand

Crude oil futures rose Wednesday. As Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that interest rates and signs of rising gasoline demand will likely come down this year. Though the central bank is moving cautiously.

The West Texas Intermediate contract for April gained 98 cents, or 1.25%, to settle at $79.13 a barrel. May Brent futures added 92 cents, or 1.12%, to settle at $82.96 a barrel.

Powell told the House Financial Services Committee Wednesday. That the Fed needs to see “a little more data” before moving on rates. Though he expects the central bank will begin loosening policy this year. As it gains more confidence that inflation is under control.

In prepared remarks, the Fed chairman said the central bank thinks rates have peaked. Lower interest rates typically stimulate the economy, which leads to more demand for crude.

Tamas Varga, an analyst at oil broker PVM, told clients in a note Tuesday that uncertainty surrounding interest rate cuts is “public enemy No. 1” of a protracted oil rally.

“The Fed chair’s testimony and the ECB interest rate decision on Thursday could revive hopes for a June reduction in borrowing costs,” Varga wrote in a research note.

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Source: CNBC

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US crude oil inventories rose modestly last week as refineries ramped up capacity use, according to data released Wednesday by the US EIA.

US crude oil stocks rise by 1.4M barrels in week ended March 1

Rose Modestly

U.S. crude oil stocks rose modestly last week. As refineries ramped up capacity use, according to data released Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Commercial crude-oil stocks–excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve–were up by 1.4 million barrels, to 448.5 million barrels, in the week ended March 1, and were about 1% below the five-year average for the time of year, the EIA said.

Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had predicted crude stockpiles would rise by 1.3 million barrels.

Oil stored in the SPR increased by 706,000 barrels, to 361 million barrels.

The EIA estimated U.S. crude oil production at 13.2 million barrels a day, down by 100,000 from the previous week. Crude imports rose by 837,000 barrels a day, to 7.2 million barrels a day, while exports slipped by 91,000 barrels a day, to 4.6 billion barrels a day.

U.S. refineries ran at 84.9% of capacity, up from 81.5% the previous week.

Decreased More than Expected

Stocks of gasoline and distillate fuels decreased more than expected as demand rose. Gasoline stocks were down by 4.5 million barrels, at 239.7 million barrels, and were 2% below the five-year average, the EIA said. Demand for gasoline rose by 547,000 barrels a day, to 9 million barrels a day. Gasoline stocks were expected to decline by 1.4 million barrels, according to the Journal survey.

The EIA estimated U.S. crude oil production at 13.2 million barrels a day, down by 100,000 from the previous week. Crude imports rose by 837,000 barrels a day, to 7.2 million barrels a day, while exports slipped by 91,000 barrels a day, to 4.6 billion barrels a day.

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Source: Market Watch

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