Tag Archive for: crudeoil

Crude oil prices were set for a third weekly rise due to concerns over supply after Trump threatened tariffs on Venezuelan crude and increased sanctions on Iran.

Oil prices set to extend winning streak on US sanction action

Crude oil prices set for their third weekly rise as concern grew about supply after President Trump threatened 25% tariffs on any country buying Venezuelan crude while stepping up sanctions on Iranian entities.

At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $73.91 per barrel while West Texas Intermediate was changing hands for $69.80 per barrel, both set to end the week about $1 per barrel higher than they started it.

Sparta Commodities analyst June Goh told Reuters that the potential loss of Venezuelan crude exports to the market due to secondary tariffs and the possibility that the same tariffs may be imposed on Iranian barrels has caused an apparent tightness in crude supply.

On Monday, President Trump said in an executive order that “On or after April 2, 2025, the United States may impose a tariff of 25 percent on all goods imported from any country that imports Venezuelan oil, whether directly from Venezuela or indirectly through third parties.”

This caught many traders and refiners off guard, especially in China, which is the biggest buyer of Venezuelan crude. It is also the biggest buyer of Iranian crude oil, which also came under attack from the Trump administration as soon as this administration took office.

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Source: Oil Price

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South Korea plans to boost U.S. oil and LNG imports amid Middle East tensions and Trump’s energy export policies.

South Korea considering buying more US oil and gas, industry minister says

South Korea is interested in importing more U.S. oil and gas to diversify energy sources and ensure stable supplies given tensions in the Middle East, the country’s industry minister Ahn Duk-geun said on Thursday.

The government may need to increase support for the purchase of non-Middle East oil, he told reporters in Seoul.

His comments come as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who takes office on Jan. 20, has vowed to impose tariffs of 10% on global imports into the U.S., and said the European Union should step up U.S. oil and gas imports or face tariffs on the bloc’s exports, including on goods such as cars and machinery.

In 2024, South Korea posted a record $55.7 billion trade surplus with the United States, up 25.4% from a year earlier.

South Korea was the world’s fourth-largest buyer of crude oil and the third-biggest liquefied natural gas (LNG) importer.

South Korea has deepened its reliance on crude oil imports from the Middle East, which accounted for 72% of total imports in 2023, up from 60% in 2021, according to the energy ministry.

For LNG, South Korea imported 47.2 million metric tons of the super-chilled fuel in 2024, of which 5.7 million metric tons were from the U.S., according to data from analytics firm Kpler.

Other LNG-importing countries such as Vietnam could also buy from the U.S. to ease its large trade surplus with the world’s top economy, said a senior Hanoi-based diplomat.

The U.S. is the world’s top LNG exporter.

Sources said that Trump plans to make it easier for some LNG producers to seek export permit renewals, while his pick to head the U.S. Energy Department told senators that his first priority is expanding domestic energy production, including LNG.

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Source: Natural Gas World

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OPEC projects

OPEC projects robust oil demand growth for 2025 and 2026

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC projects) has released its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) that covers major issues affecting global oil markets and provides the outlook for crude oil market developments. OPEC has reiterated its earlier forecast that global oil demand will expand at a robust clip at 1.4 mb/d in 2025, largely driven by strong non-OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) growth. OPEC sees non-OECD demand growth clocking in at 1.3 mb/d, compared with just 0.1 mb/d for the 38-member international alliance. According to OPEC, this robust demand will continue in 2026 with global oil demand forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d Y/Y. Again, non-OECD countries will do the heavy lifting with demand growth expected to come in at 1.3 mb/d vs. 0.1 mb/d for OECD.

On the supply side, OPEC has forecast non-DoC liquids supply (i.e., liquids supply from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) to grow by 1.1 mb/d Y/Y in 2025, mainly driven by production growth in the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Norway. Non-DoC liquids supply growth in 2026 is expected to clock in at 1.1 mb/d, mainly driven by the U.S., Brazil and Canada. Meanwhile, DoC supply of natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by about 90 tb/d Y/Y in 2025, to average 8.4 mb/d, and by 0.1 mb/ Y/Y in 2026 to average 8.5 mb/d.

The Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) is a loosely coupled organization that started in 2016. It constitutes the coordination between OPEC member countries with 11 non-OPEC oil producing countries (now 10 – Equatorial Guinea became an OPEC Member in May 2017) in a concerted effort to stabilize the global oil market. DoC was effective for an initial period of six months, but has been extended multiple times thanks to its success.

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Source: Oil Price

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Robust US economic data and a larger-than-expected crude inventory continue to bolster the outlook for the economy and oil demand.

Oil prices climb on OPEC data and a strong US economy

Crude oil prices climb higher today, after the release of production data from OPEC and Russia, showing both declined in December.

The recent employment survey released by the United States has unveiled a promising outlook for the economy, which has significant implications for the oil market. The data indicates that layoffs remain notably low, a trend that reflects not only a stable job market but also a growing confidence among employers. This stability is crucial, as it suggests that businesses are not only retaining their workforce but are also investing in their employees through retention strategies. Moreover, the survey highlights an increase in job openings, signaling that companies are expanding operations and seeking to hire additional talent. This surge in job availability is a strong indicator of economic vitality, as it reflects a demand for goods and services that often correlates with increased energy consumption.

The implications of these employment trends are particularly bullish for the oil market. As economic activity ramps up, the demand for oil typically rises in tandem, driven by the need for transportation fuels, industrial energy, and heating. Additionally, a robust job market generally translates to higher consumer confidence, which can lead to increased spending on travel and leisure activities, further boosting oil consumption. Investors are likely to view these positive employment figures as a harbinger of sustained economic growth, which could lead to a tighter oil supply-demand balance. As such, the synergy between a healthy labor market and the oil industry may serve to reinforce upward price pressures, making the current economic landscape particularly favorable for oil market stakeholders.

The Latest Market Update on Oil Prices Climb

As of the latest market update, Brent crude oil is currently trading at $77.34 per barrel, reflecting a notable increase from its opening price earlier in the trading session. This upward movement in Brent crude prices can be attributed to a variety of factors, including geopolitical tensions, supply constraints, and fluctuations in global demand. Investors and analysts are closely monitoring these developments, as they have significant implications for both the energy market and the broader economy. The ongoing recovery from pandemic-related disruptions and shifts in consumption patterns are also contributing to the volatility observed in oil prices.

In parallel, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is tradeable at $74.65 per barrel, also showing an increase from its opening value. The rise in WTI prices is indicative of the overall bullish sentiment in the oil market, driven by expectations of recovering demand as economies continue to emerge from pandemic restrictions. Furthermore, factors such as inventory levels, production cuts by OPEC+, and seasonal variations in consumption can heavily influence WTI pricing. Market participants are to remain vigilant as these variables evolve, as they will play a crucial role in shaping future oil price trajectories and influencing strategic decisions for businesses across various sectors.

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Source: Oil Price

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President-elect Trump warned the EU that US tariffs will target exports if its member states don't buy more American oil and gas.

Trump threatens tariffs if EU doesn’t buy more US oil and gas

President-elect Donald Trump threatens tariffs on the European Union. Its exports will get hit with US tariffs if its member states don’t buy more American oil and gas.

“I told the European Union that they must make up their tremendous deficit with the United States. This is by the large scale purchase of our oil and gas. Otherwise, it is TARIFFS all the way!!!,”. he said on Truth Social.

The US is the world’s largest producer of crude oil and the biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas. LNG buyers — including the EU and Vietnam — have already talked about purchasing more fuel. They are planning to get it from the US as part to deter the threat of tariffs.

The euro traded 0.3% stronger at $1.0398 Friday in a sign investors believe the bloc will be able to meet its demands and avoid punitive measures.

The US goods and services trade

The US goods and services trade deficit with the EU was $131.3 billion in 2022, according to the office of the US Trade Representative, and the EU has been bracing for a trade offensive ever since Trump’s election victory last month.

The bloc was largely caught off-guard in 2017 when Trump, citing national security concerns in his previous term as president, levied tariffs on European steel and aluminum. Since then, the EU has reinvented its trade doctrine and expanded its toolbox, giving it a range of options to counter coercive practices.

“We are well-prepared for the possibility that things will become different with a new US administration. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said after a Group of Seven meeting in Italy in late November. “If the new US administration pursues an ‘America first’ policy in the sectors of climate or trade, then our response will be ‘Europe united.’”

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Source: Bloomberg

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Growing well productivity suggests that operators in the Permian are successfully implementing more advanced drilling & completion techniques

Permian production forecast growth driven by well productivity, pipeline capacity

In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast that crude oil production in the United States. It will grow to an average of 13.7 million barrels per day (b/d). The market for natural gas production will grow to an average of 114.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025. Most of the forecast growth in oil and natural gas production comes from the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico. It is where we expect productivity gains, new and expanded infrastructure, and high crude oil prices will support rising production.

In order to better capture drilling activity in several onshore U.S. regions, our STEO now makes use of multiple drilling productivity metrics. The number of active rigs is the first in a sequence of metrics that affects regional production; currently more rigs are active in the Permian region than in the rest of the Lower 48 states combined. We also capture and report the number of new wells that those rigs have drilled each month.

Drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) have been drilled but have not yet undergone well completion activities to start producing hydrocarbons. The well completion process involves casing, cementing, perforating, hydraulic fracturing, and other procedures required to produce crude oil or natural gas. Ultimately, when these wells are completed, they begin producing crude oil, natural gas, or both.

Producers make decisions on drilling and completion operations based on market conditions, prices, and infrastructure. A downward trend in the DUC count means producers are completing more wells than they are drilling.

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Source: EIA

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US crude oil rallies

US crude oil rallies more than 4%, tops $80 as Pentagon sends more forces to Middle East

US crude oil rallies Monday to top $80 per barrel as the Pentagon dispatched more forces to the Middle East in anticipation of an Iranian attack on Israel.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered a carrier strike group, including F-35 warplanes, to accelerate its deployment to the region. Austin also ordered a guided-missile submarine to the Middle East.

Israel has put its military on high alert, a person familiar with the matter told The Wall Street Journal.

“We see allocations to oil and gold as the main means to add some protection to portfolios. It is  against a further escalation in geopolitical tensions,” UBS analysts told clients in a Monday research note.

U.S. crude oil is trading higher even as OPEC lowered its global demand growth forecast by 135,000 barrels per day.  This is citing softening consumption in China.

“The oil markets reacted strongly to the increased geopolitical risk even as OPEC has shown some concern about its demand growth”. This is what Phil Flynn said. Hi is the senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group. He said the market is still on track for a deficit as inventories fall.

U.S. crude oil finished last week more than 4% higher, snapping a 4-week decline, as the stock market recovered most of its losses from a flash sell-off caused by mounting fear of a recession and after the Bank of Japan lifted interest rates a fraction.

Don’t miss the

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Source: CNBC

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Oil Prices Rise Amid Growing Fears of a War in the Middle East

Oil Prices Rise Amid Growing Fears of a War in the Middle East

Crude oil prices saw an upward trend today, building on a significant rise the previous day following reports of Israel’s targeted killings of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran and a high-ranking Hezbollah official in Lebanon.

The assassination of Haniyeh in Iran particularly heightened market concerns, prompting Tehran to issue threats of retaliation that analysts suggest could push Brent crude prices into triple-digit levels.

“We are concerned that the region may be teetering on the edge of full-scale war,” remarked Japan’s deputy representative to the United Nations, as the Security Council urged member states to intensify diplomatic efforts to resolve the escalating conflict between Israel and its neighboring countries.

China’s UN ambassador emphasized the need for influential nations to exert greater pressure and act decisively to quell the ongoing violence in Gaza.

Iran’s representative condemned the assassination of Haniyeh as an act of terrorism, as reported by Reuters amid the unfolding situation.

The Tensions in the Middle East Due to Oil Prices Rise

With tensions in the Middle East remaining elevated, Brent crude prices exceeded $81 per barrel before slightly retracting earlier today, while West Texas Intermediate approached $79 per barrel.

In further positive news for the oil market, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) disclosed that U.S. oil demand reached a seasonal high of 20.80 million barrels per day in May, a noteworthy upward revision from earlier estimates of 20 million barrels per day.

Moreover, global oil inventories are currently in decline, reflecting a significant deficit compared to historical averages, according to Eric Nuttall, senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners, who spoke to Bloomberg this week. Nuttall also highlighted improvements in OPEC+ production cut compliance as a contributing factor to the optimistic outlook for oil prices.

Should diplomatic efforts fail to alleviate tensions in the Middle East, oil prices may continue to rise, driven by fundamental market dynamics and geopolitical risk factors.

Source: Oil Price

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Oil prices rise

Oil prices rise as inflation eases, bolstering market hopes for Fed rate cut later this year

KEY POINTS ON OIL PRICES RISE:
-Crude oil futures climbed on Thursday, getting a lift from cooling inflation data.
-The consumer price index fell 0.1% in June from the prior month, bringing the 12-month rate to 3%.
-The inflation data bolstered hopes for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in September. Lower rates stimulate economic growth, which can boost demand for oil.

Crude oil futures rose Thursday as inflation eased. It is bolstering hopes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this year.

Inflation as measured by the consumer price index dropped 0.1% from May to June. It is putting the 12-month rate at 3%, near the lowest level in more than three years, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.

The market is expecting the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in September. Lower interest rates typically stimulate economic growth, which can bolster crude oil demand.

The inflation and interest rate outlook overshadowed mixed signals on oil demand for this year. The Paris-based International Energy Agency said global demand growth eased to 710,000 barrels per day year on year in the second quarter, the slowest increase since the fourth quarter of 2022, as consumption in China contracted.

The IEA is forecasting global oil demand growth will average just under one million barrels per day in 2024 due to subpar economic growth, greater energy efficiency and electric vehicle adoption.

OPEC, on the other hand, is much more bullish, forecasting demand growth of 2.2 million barrels per day as the cartel sees solid economic growth of 2.9% this year.

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Source: CNBC – Trusted Resource

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The EIA forecasts that crude production from the Permian Basin will average about 6.3M barrels per day this year, an increase of 8% over 2023

EIA: Permian oil output to surge 8% in 2024

Once again, the Permian Basin is expected to lead growth in the nation’s overall oil production as per EIA.

The Energy Information Administration forecasts that crude production from the Permian Basin will average about 6.3 million barrels per day this year. This is an increase of 8% over 2023 and accounting for nearly half of all crude production.

Permian production will contribute about two thirds of all US oil production through the end of 2025. This is according to the EIA’s June Short-Term Energy Outlook. The EIA expects increased production from the Permian. It also affect regions since it will drive US production to record highs in both 2024 and 2025.

“The Permian region’s proximity to crude oil refine and export terminals on the Gulf Coast. It established takeaway capacity and improved new well productivity to support crude oil production growth in the region,” the EIA wrote in its June 2024 Short-Term Energy Outlook.

“Without a doubt, the mighty Permian Basin is the major factor. It makes Texas the 8th largest economy in the world”. This is what Todd Staples, president of the Texas Oil & Gas Association, commented to the Reporter-Telegram by email.

“The Permian Basin leads US energy production. It single-handedly contributing nearly 45% of domestic oil production, thanks to its phenomenal reserves, private sector investment in infrastructure, and Texas’ welcoming business climate that includes a stable regulatory environment,” he continued.

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Source: mrt

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